Day 47: Let's run some numbers
It seems like the right moment. But what kind of numbers I’m talking about? I know, I should assess how much I’m spending, but right now I’m talking about a hypothetical plan for the rest of the trail. And I know there are too many variables, too much is still left to chance. Still, it can be helpful to make a couple of rough projections.
But first: why do I want to do this? Why plan when I’ve already learned every plan inevitably changes? Some things need planning – water, for example, dictates the pace of almost every day. But I have a limited amount of time for this journey and I can’t ignore that.
I’m about ten days from Kennedy Meadows, the canonical start of the Sierra Nevada section. This section, if we only consider the alpine part1, is about 300 miles long. A conservative approximation is to allocate a month to cover it, although it’s doable in three weeks. Say between 25 and 30 days, but let’s err on the side of caution: I’m aiming for a rough plan.
Next question: when will I start the Sierra? Let’s say around June 5, allowing for 1-2 zero days after completing the desert section (Southern California). So we should exit the Sierra by July 5, which leaves 57 days until the end of August, the end of my unpaid leave from work2.
The hardest question now: is it realistic to think I can hike the rest of California (the northern part, about 600 miles) and the states of Oregon and Washington – which are about a thousand miles together – in just under two months? The answer is, of course, it depends, but assuming certain conditions, I’d say the answer could be “yes.” Which assumptions?
- Increase the daily mileage between 25 and 28 miles (about 40-45 km).
- Limit the zero days. If we want to estimate, we could allocate 10 zeros for Oregon and Washington, 5 each. The days I need would increase to 67, but it might still be feasible.
Will I follow this plan? I don’t know, but making it doesn’t mean I’m bound to it: it just helps me become aware of what I’ve done, how, and where I can improve.
I’ll wrap up with today’s highlight: we spent the late afternoon and evening at a restaurant/arcade/bowling place. Were we alone? Of course not! The idea came from an American hiker (Chris) who booked a table and the bowling lanes; then word spread so quickly from hiker group to hiker group that by the evening there must have been at least thirty hikers there. It felt like we were a group of old friends gathering for the birthday of one of us. I’d say this can definitely count as trail magic because it was a very relaxing and fun occasion to socialize.